already household attitudes have deteriorated sharply in response to the fiscal cliff worries, and we think this will lead to a sharp slowdown in economic activity in the first quarter as fiscal negotiations continue into 2013. beyond that, the economic outlook for 2013 will depend greatly on how long it takes congress to resolve some of the major policy issues. the longer that indecision and uncertainty in congress drags on, the more it will damage economic growth. at the moment, we're still hopeful for a rebound in the second half of the year as some of these policies become more clear and business investment rebounds. >> iranian leaders are flexing their ministry muscles on one the world's key shipping routes for oil and gas. naval personnel have begun six days of exercises on the strait of hormuth. commanders say they're using ships, submarines and surveillance drones. they say crews will test fire on missiles. they say one drone will show how much iranians can defend themselves against other nations. and though they oppose iran's nuclear program, they have some in the gulf. >>> a